The Psychology of Estimation: A Handbook for Project Managers

Cost and schedule estimates are shaped by psychology. This handbook teaches you how to detect and disrupt the top ten biases that plague the estimation process. 

The research on cognitive biases is clear: biases cannot be eliminated. In fact, there are some instances where trying to train a bias out of someone, you actually entrench it.

So, rather than trying to avoid, we need to learn how to detect and disrupt biases when they get in the way. Not just in other people, but in ourselves. In fact, before we worry about other people’s biases, we should get familiar with our own.

• Do you ever dig in your heels on a cost estimate (you’ve been anchored), or have you told your team that it’s too late to cancel something (escalation of commitment)?
• Do you find yourself countering someone’s negativity with too rosy of a picture? (optimism bias)
• Are you holding yet another planning meeting to de-risk something? (planning fallacy)

That’s the first step of working with biases: detecting them. The second step is to disrupt them.